Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. Election officials were not permitted by law to begin counting mail-in ballots in the state until today, so we may not know the presidential election results here for days. Good evening from Philadelphia! I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Eastern in the GOP-leaning Panhandle, so there's time for more Republican votes, too Polls close in an hour and 15 minutes in most of Florida, and Democrats tend to vote a little later in the day, so they could eat a bit back into Republican margins. Biden probably needs to win independents by 7 points if the composition of the electorate continues to look like this. Nearly every poll says Biden leads with them, but the question is how much. Now, 24% of the electorate are no independent party affiliation/third party voters, so it's anyone's guess how they break. Not every Democrat is voting for Biden nor ever Republican for Trump, so we're using these raw ballot numbers as a sign of intensity. Biden wants to keep that margin at 2 or below. Republicans then stormed the polls today and led Democrats by about 184,000 ballots cast, or 1.7 points. They began the day in a hole to Democrats in total ballots cast, with the Dems ahead by 115,000 early and absentee ballots cast, a margin of 1.3 percentage points. update, Republicans have been dominating the day in turnout, as expected. We're watching turnout and we can do it almost in real-time. I'm watching three things: Florida, Florida, Florida. To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7-point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.8. We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. It was R+0.6 in 2016 when Trump won by 1.2 points. As of about 6:30, the GOP’s share of vote was 1.8 percentage points higher than the Democrats, known as an R+1.8 electorate. More Republicans are voting than Democrats in Florida. When more Republicans vote than Democrats, the Republican has won. Bottom line: when more Democrats vote than Republicans, the Democrat has won Florida. He would be the 1st top-of-the-ticket candidate to carry the state even though his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. If Biden wins FL tonight, it will be unique. Polls are now closed in the Eastern Time Zone of FL, they'll be open for another hour in Central.
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